425
Filed by NRG Energy, Inc. pursuant to
Rule 425 of the Securities Act of 1933
Subject Company: NRG Energy, Inc.
Commission File No.: 001-15891
On July 8, 2009, NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) hosted a conference call regarding the NRG Board of
Directors rejection of Exelon Corporations revised unsolicited proposal. The slides that were
presented and a transcript of the presentation are included below.
Exelon Offer to NRG Shareholders:
July 8, 2009
The Price Remains Inadequate...
But There is a Basis for More
|
Safe Harbor Statement
Important Information
In connection with its 2009 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the "2009 Annual Meeting"), NRG Energy, Inc. ("NRG") has filed a definitive proxy
statement on Schedule 14A with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"). INVESTORS AND STOCKHOLDERS OF NRG ARE URGED TO
READ THE PROXY STATEMENT FOR THE 2009 ANNUAL MEETING IN ITS ENTIRETY BECAUSE IT CONTAINS IMPORTANT INFORMATION.
In response to the exchange offer proposed by Exelon Corporation referred to in this communication, NRG has filed with the SEC a
Solicitation/Recommendation Statement on Schedule 14D-9. STOCKHOLDERS OF NRG ARE ADVISED TO READ NRG'S SOLICITATION/
RECOMMENDATION STATEMENT ON SCHEDULE 14D-9 IN ITS ENTIRETY BECAUSE IT CONTAINS IMPORTANT INFORMATION. This communication
does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of NRG.
Investors and stockholders will be able to obtain free copies of NRG's definitive proxy statement, the Solicitation/Recommendation Statement on
Schedule 14D-9, any amendments or supplements to the proxy statement and/or the Schedule 14D-9, any other documents filed by NRG in
connection with the 2009 Annual Meeting and/or the exchange offer by Exelon Corporation, and other documents filed with the SEC by NRG at the
SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Free copies of the definitive proxy statement, the Solicitation/ Recommendation Statement on Schedule 14D-9,
and any amendments and supplements to these documents can also be obtained by directing a request to Investor Relations Department, NRG
Energy, Inc., 211 Carnegie Center, Princeton, New Jersey 08540.
NRG and its directors and executive officers will be deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies in connection with its 2009 Annual
Meeting. Detailed information regarding the names, affiliations and interests of NRG's directors and executive officers is available in the definitive
proxy statement for the 2009 Annual Meeting, which was filed with the SEC on June 16, 2009.
Forward-Looking Statements
This communication contains forward-looking statements that may state NRG's or its management's intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations or
predictions for the future. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and typically can be
identified by the use of words such as "will," "expect," "estimate," "anticipate," "forecast," "plan," "believe" and similar terms. Although NRG
believes that its expectations are reasonable, it can give no assurance that these expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual results
may vary materially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated above include, among others, risks and
uncertainties related to the capital markets generally.
The foregoing review of factors that could cause NRG's actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward-looking
statements included herein should be considered in connection with information regarding risks and uncertainties that may affect NRG's future
results included in NRG's filings with the SEC at www.sec.gov. Statements made in connection with the exchange offer are not subject to the safe
harbor protections provided to forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
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Agenda
I. Exelon Revised Offer for NRG:
Inadequate Value
Growth Prospects
Combination Risks and Opportunities
II. NRG Business Update:
Operational Performance
Commercial Operations
Financial Outlook
|
Exelon's Offer vs. NRG's Value
|
I. NRG Response to Exelon's Improved Offer
Exelon's revised offer remains unacceptable as it still does
not adequately reflect NRG's value proposition and growth
potential relative to Exelon's own prospects
Exelon's increase is driven by incremental synergies which,
if substantiated and fairly shared between the parties,
means there is a solid rationale for Exelon to increase its
offer again in order to provide appropriate value for NRG's
recent developments, particularly Reliant Energy retail and
NINA
If Exelon would make a proposal that properly reflected
the obvious value of NRG's growth initiatives, we would be
willing to sit down with them and their consultants to firm
up their synergies estimate and demonstrate even further
the value of NRG
|
A. Value: Market Premiums -- Fact vs Fiction
Exelon's indicative premium is based on hypothetical
stock price performance derived from imperfect peers
Ignores negative impacts to EXC's earnings and growth
outlook
Ignores all the positive events affecting NRG stock price
since Exelon offer
Ignores NRG's well hedged position and strong liquidity
profile versus that of its peers
Ignores the fact that most IPP peers are more levered
than NRG and were therefore more adversely impacted
by the credit crisis
Ignores the fact that NRG has historically (over the last
5 years up to EXC 10/17/09 offer) outperformed IPP
index
Exelon Consultants' Approach(1):
Indicative Stand-Alone Share Prices
Current
Stock Price(2)
Halfway
Between Index
And Current
Based on
Competitive
Integrated
Index(4)
Current
Stock Price(2)
Halfway
Between Index
And Current
Based on
IPP Index(5)
Actual Premium over
July 1, 2009 Closing Price(3)
Key
Assumption
Weakness
in
Approach
Exelon Stand-Alone Stock Price
NRG
Stand-
Alone
Stock
Price
Indicative
Premium
7.9%
REALITY:
(1) Based off Exelon presentation dated 7/2/09, closing stock prices as of 6/26/09; (2)
Closing share price as of 6/26/09; (3) Day prior to Exelon's revised offer;
(4)EXC implied stock price ased on the Competitive Integrateds (AYE, ETR, FPL, PPL, PEG, CE
G, EIX, FE) performance from 10/17/08 to 6/26/09;
(5)NRG implied stock price based on the IPP Index (MIR, CPN, DYN, RRI) performance from
10/17/08 to 6/26/09.
NRG stockholders deserve a real premium
that reflects NRG's fundamental value
|
A. Inadequate Value:
Free Cash Flow Contribution
Free Cash Flow dilution to NRG stockholders
applies in any year in the short and long term
A great deal for Exelon stockholders; still negative for NRG stockholders
(1) Source: Sell-side research; (2) FCF defined as Cash from Operations less
maintenance CapEx but excluding environmental and growth CapEx, dividends,
and share repurchases; not intended as guidance of expected results.
NRG stockholders would be contributing an average
30% of recurring free cash flows to the combined
company for only 18% ownership
Implied
Exchange Ratio
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
East 27 27 30 34 31
West 73 73 70 66 69
Exelon Exchange Offer of 0.545 =
Implied Ownership of 18%
34%
30%
66%
70%
1.236x
0.899x
2009E
2012E
27%
27%
2010E
2011E
73%
73%
1.043x
0.905x
1.064x
2008E
31%
69%
Percent Contribution of Recurring FCF1,2
2010 2011 2012
EXC Standalone 3.87 4.4 4.22
Pro Forma Combined 4.66 5.08 4.83
EXC Recurring Free Cash Flow per Share1
2010 2011 2012
NRG Standalone 4.45 4.55 4.44
Pro Forma Combined 2.54 2.77 2.63
NRG Recurring Free Cash Flow per Share1
20%
15%
14%
(43%)
(39%)
(41%)
Exelon points to 2011 as the most
compelling year for the transaction;
we don't believe 2011 is so compelling
from NRG shareholders' perspective
|
$26.91 / Share (7)
NRG
Other
Growth
Projects and
International
Assets (4) (5)
(1) Implied value of NRG valuing Texas baseload assets at $3000+/kw sourced from Exelon presentation dated February 2, 2009. Per share value assumes 275M shares outstanding.
(2) Replacement cost for assets other than Texas baseload based on independent consultant (Ventyx)
(3) Based on Toshiba's $150 million commitment for STP 3 and 4 for 12% interest in NINA
(4) Future nuclear development, to which Toshiba has committed an additional $150 million, is implied in NRG other Growth Projects and International Assets
(5) Excludes Reliant Energy retail
(6) Gap is equal to the difference between Exelon's implied offer as of 7/2/09 and the implied value of NRG stock price valuing Texas baseload assets at $3,000 / kW
(7) Implied share price of Exelon's offer as of 7/2/09
(3)
EXC valued NRG's
Texas Baseload at
$3,000+ / kw(1)
Blended
$630 / kw (2)
Blended
$840 / kw (2)
Blended
$340 / kw (2)
$800 / kw (3)
STP 3&4
$9.0 B
$7.4 B
Power sector asset values typically revert towards replacement costs
A. Inadequate Value: Exelon Offer Continues to Represent
Severe Discount to NRG's Replacement Cost Value
$32.62 / Share (1)
7/2/09: EXC exchange offer (0.545x)
0.545x only
compensates for
83% of Texas
Baseload
Prior to the
acquisition of
Texas Genco,
the asset
portfolio,
excluding Texas
baseload, was
valued at a firm
value of ~$6.4B
Value Gap
Gap:
$5.71 / share(6)
|
$0.10/
NRG share
$1.00/
NRG share
A. Inadequate Value: NRG Growth:
Building Blocks to Success
Exelon's offer has a long way to go in terms of adequately
acknowledging NRG's growth
Intrinsic Growth
Core Assets
550 MW Cedar
Bayou 4
500 MW eSolar
Solar Thermal
400 MW
GenConn
150 MW Wind
Langford
120 MW Wind
Elbow Creek
Repowering NRG
Nuclear
Renaissance
STP 3&4
Follow-on
projects
Intellectual
property/
development
knowhow
Supply chain
opportunities
NINA
+
Cost &
Performance
Improvements
Revenue
enhancement:
Asset reliability
and availability
Cost savings:
Procurement,
corporate
Asset
optimization:
Inventory and
working capital
management
FORNRG
Vertical
Integration
(Texas Retail)
Leading retail
electricity brand
Countercyclical
business
fundamentals
Significant
potential
synergies
Distributed green
opportunities
Reliant Energy
+
+
=
NRG
Growth
VALUE
GAP
=
(1) Per Exelon July presentation, pg. 25
$0.00/
NRG share
$0.00/
NRG share
$1.10/
NRG share
+
+
+
Value Assigned by Exelon (1)
|
Mid-cycle adjusted
EBITDA run rate
Implied equity value/share(1) at
EBITDA multiples of:
Reliant projected
contribution for
eight months of
2009:
B. Growth: Reliant Energy retail
Materially Undervalued by Exelon
Leading provider of electricity and
energy services in ERCOT
Highest ranking in overall residential
customer satisfaction among 3 largest
retailers
Lowest in PUCT complaints
Serves two groups of customers
totaling nearly 1.8 million customers
Mass: 2nd largest in Texas with ~28%
market share - 1.69 million customers
C&I: largest in Texas with more than
35 TWh annual sales
Complements NRG's merchant
generation assets
Optimizes business model by matching
generation and load
Increases collateral efficiency
Business Overview and Benefits
Purchase Price $288
Working Capital Payment 82
Total Purchase Price $370
Ongoing Retail Valuation
($ millions)
$250
5x = $4.50
6x = $5.50
(1) Excludes Reliant Retail purchase price
Leading Retail
Franchise
+
Leading Wholesale
Generation
Multiple Expansion
Countercyclical Value
Proven Countercyclical
performance
Adj. EBITDA
> $400M
Once integration
is completed
While integration
is in process
|
B. Growth: NINA's Unique Value of Leading
the Nuclear Renaissance
NRG leading position in nuclear is definitely worth more than zero
Recent Developments
Comparative Advantage
NRC Schedule for STP 3&4 issued
Open book period followed by Fixed Price Turnkey
construction period provides price certainty
Contractual terms substantially the same as large
fossil project
Triggers two additional EPC contracts with the same
terms
Non-recourse to NRG
Repaid with DOE/ Japanese guaranteed loan
proceeds at Full Notice to Proceed (FNTP)
Supports long lead time material purchases during
open book phase
Defers NRG significant equipment spend until FNTP
$500mm credit facility to be
provided by Toshiba
DOE in final term sheet negotiations with final four
nuclear sites selected; includes NRG's STP 3&4
$18.5 billion of federal guarantees already authorized
Additional Japanese government support for projects
of "strategic industry"
EPC Contract executed
Highly ranked within upper tier of
preliminary DOE rankings
COL issuance anticipated for 2012
|
NRG Classic ForNRG West Texas Hedge Reset Texas Genco Acquisition Repowering 2008
514 714 726 1810 2269
activity 514 200 12 1084 459 30 2291
negative activity
.... for which we believe NRG stockholders
should derive and retain the benefits
B. Growth: NRG's Future Growth is Based on a
Proven History of Delivering on Past Growth...
2004 NRG
Classic 1
2008
Current NRG
NRG Growth Path!
1) NRG Classic EBITDA excludes Long Beach Repowering, West Coast Power and FORNRG 1.0; (2) Reflects 2014 using 6/11/09 curve
2009 Guidance Gross Margin retail Fornrg Repowering NINA Reliant Retail +
2200 2623 2873 3023 3103 2991
activity 2200 423 250 150 80 400 300
2009
$ in millions
Reliant
Retail
$2,200
$ in millions
1.0
Texas
Hedge
Reset
$2,290
Texas
Genco
West
Coast
Power
2.0
The 5-Year Path to 2008 EBITDA
2009 EBITDA and Beyond
Gross
Margin
Improvement2
Accretion from capital
allocation for debt
reduction and share
repurchases
+
New
|
C. Combination: Synergies - Potentially
Positive for Both Companies' Shareholders...
.... but unclear how Exelon extracts
this level of synergies out of NRG
Amounts ($ in millions)
Exelon: Economist
and Consultants' View
Cost Synergy
Categories
NRG Management's Initial View
|
.... A solid rationale for Exelon to pay much more for NRG than 0.545x
C. Combination: Exelon Synergies: Once
Firmed Up...
(1) Based on 0.545x exchange ratio and Exelon's 7/1/09 share price of $51.56, 275M NRG shares outstanding.
(2) EXC's announced synergies allocated to NRG per page 10 of EXC's 7/02/09 presentation.
(3) Midpoint of EXC's announced synergies of $3.8BN less $0.6BN announced allocation to NRG less $0.6BN announced transaction fees per page 10 of EXC 7/2/09 presentation.
(1)
(2) (3)
$28.10/share
$11.84/share
($2.19)/share
$37.75/share
Value for EXC shareholders from EXC Disclosure
($ in billions, except per share values)
0.732x implied
exchange ratio
($0.6)
0.639x implied
exchange ratio
50% Synergies
50% Synergies
$5.92/share
$1.6
$3.3
0.545
Exchange Ratio
|
C. Combination: Exelon's "Revised" Asset
Divestiture Plan
This is Not the Best Market to be a Forced Seller of Assets
Previous Plan Revised Plan
EXC ERCOT 2400 2400
EXC Contracts 1200 1200
NRG PJM-E 1000 1000
NRG South Central 0 2400
NRG International 0 1000
". . . we question whether EXC can achieve an asset divestiture of this scale in these
market conditions with these noncore assets"
- Neel Mitra, Simmons & Co. July 7, 2009
MW's
^4,600 MW
^8,000 MW
>70% Increase
The Asset Sale Challenge
PJM (Indian River, Vienna, Dover)
Ongoing environmental matters
in Delaware. Significant capex
requirement at Indian River
South Central (Big Cajun, Peakers)
Long-term tolling agreements at
below market prices
Potential obstacles to sell to other
incumbents
International (Gladstone, Schkopau)
Not wholly owned assets -
partners have effective veto
(which they have exercised)
1
2
Exelon's Amendment No. 4 to Form S-4 filed on May 20, 2009
Exelon's Amendment No. 4 to Form S-4 filed on May 20, 2009. Additional referenced assets per Exelon's Investor Presentation on July 2,2009. Figures for South Central and International from NRG's 2008 10K Filing.
EXC Goal from
both asset sales
and equity:
$1-2 Bn
EXC Goal from
both asset sales
and equity:
$2.7 Bn
|
Summary
We believe Exelon's offer, on October 19, 2008, made during the
nadir of the financial crisis, grossly undervalued NRG
Since that time, NRG has created substantial additional
shareholder value on an absolute basis and on a comparative
(to Exelon) basis, which is not recognized in Exelon's original
offer, and has not yet been properly valued in this revised offer
Over the last 6 years, NRG's Board of Directors, as presently
constituted, has been effective in making decisions both about
NRG's value-enhancing actions and in giving thorough and
reasonable consideration to Exelon's offer
|
II. Midyear Business Update
Operational Performance
Safety Performance - top quartile YTD
Texas Baseload Fleet - top decile performance availability and reliability
FORNRG2.0 2009 Goal - Achieved in June 2009
Commercial Operations
Integrated Retail Supply into Commercial Operations
Comprehensive Risk Management framework applied to Retail
Execution of Hedging including Retail/Wholesale Matching
Financial Outlook
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance revised upward to $2.5 billion
Liquidity at June 30, 2009 exceeded $4.0 billion
Authorized share buyback for 2009 increased to $500 million
|
A. Operations Update
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD*
2.92 2.04 1.63 0.84 1.35
1.53
2009 2010 2011 2012
20 47 73 100
23 23 23 23
Operating Excellence
OSHA Recordable Rate - Exceeds Top Quartile
Preliminary Estimate YTD through June 2009
2.92
2.04
1.63
0.84
1.35
Top
Quartile
1.52
20 bps
47 bps
73 bps
100
bps
2009 YTD
23 bps
FORNRG 2.0 - 2009 Goal Achieved
Baseload EAF* - Consistent Improvement
Safety - Continued Strong Performance
VPP progress at multiple sites
New company-wide contractor safety policy in effect
Active senior management involvement in safety
Record Availability and Reliability
Texas baseload EAF and EFOR at top decile levels
Nuclear performance: 100% EAF, 0% EFOR
NRG Coal fleet EFOR improved by 23% vs YTD Q2 in
2008
Cedar Bayou 4 since June 25: NCF 82.6%, EAF 98.7%
2009 ROIC improvement target of 20 bps surpassed in Q2
$17M in recurring free cash flow benefits year-to-date
Reductions in invested capital leads to efficient
deployment of cash
Managing spending in a challenging generating
environment
Reduced major and normal maintenance by $14M
through May
Working with vendors to capture commodity/labor cost
reductions in procurement spending
|
Dummy Range 5-year Average
STP (2) 0.903 0.1127 0.969
EXC (17) 0.93455 0.0089 0.938
CEG (5) 0.92455 0.01555 0.933
ETR (11) 0.895 0.024 0.908
PGN (5) 0.8945 0.043 0.903
D (7) 0.888 0.026 0.902
SO (6) 0.889 0.0405 0.902
TVA (5) 0.883 0.049 0.895
FPL (6) 0.873 0.035 0.885
DUK (7) 0.873 0.009 0.877
Non-fleet (21) 0.86 0.022 0.873
FE (4) 0.765 0.135 0.8515
STP (2) 0.903 0.1127 0.969
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Exelon 12.89 12.98 13.53 14.27 14.91 15.83
Industry 16.51 16.28 16.74 16.65 17.66
STP 16.1 12.05 14.05 13.15 13.96 16.24
17.66 18.49
Operational Prowess
Nuclear Annual Avg. Production Cost
($/MWh)
Combined Net Capacity Factor 100%
Combined generation 11.6 GWh (100%)
- Top two unit site in the U.S.
EFOR of 0%
0% Safety recordables
STP 1&2 2009 Highlights
Source: Exelon July 2009 presentation pg. 19 and NRG
A. STPNOC STP 1&2 Nuclear Operations vs. Peers
|
B. Managing Commodity Price Risk
Baseload Hedge Position1,2
Opportunistic and collateral efficient hedging
1 Portfolio as of 7/01/2009; 2009 values reflect positions from August 09 through December 09 only
2 "New Hedges" represents hedged positions added since Q1'09 (as of 4/09/2009)
Baseload Gas Price Sensitivity3
Gross margin change from $1/mmBtu gas price change ($ In millions)
(3) As of 7/1/2009. Baseload gas price and heat rate sensitivity for 2009 is immaterial.
4 $1/mmBtu move in gas is 'equally probable' to 0.25 mmBtu/MWh move in heat rate.
Sensitivity was based on portfolio as of 7/01/2009
Baseload Heat Rate Sensitivity4
Integrated retail supply function
into Commercial Operations
Matching of generation and load
portfolios
Added power/gas hedges in 2010
|
C. Reliant Energy retail Update
Integration and Risk Management
C&I sales channels restarted and generating profitable growth
C&I margins improving
Restarted mass sales channels at full force
Managing mass business to reduce customer attrition
Leading retail franchise backed by Texas generation assets
Skilled retail workforce supported by experienced NRG Com Ops and Risk
team
Risk management of supply and load integrated
NRG liquidity and generation assets facilitates a more balanced book
Increased collateral efficiency allows for a more competitive product
offering for the sales team
Business Outlook
Retail and Wholesale Combination Drives
Incremental Value to Texas Portfolio
Financial Outlook
May / June business results exceed $200 million in adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA May to December 2009 expected to exceed $400M
|
C. 2009 Guidance
Note: Cash Flow Yield based on
common stock share price of
$22.08 as of July 7, 2009
23%
Recurring Free
Cash Flow Yield
$5.13
Recurring Free
Cash Flow Per Share
Note: Adjusted EBITDA Guidance excludes Exelon defense costs and Reliant retail transaction and
integration expenses
Record Financial Performance in 2009
Note: Calculated by adding back
preferred dividends and dividing by the
weighted average number of common
diluted shares of 275 million
|
C. Financial Summary: First Half of 2009
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance increased to $2.5 billion
Over $200 million of EBITDA generated from Reliant Energy
retail in first two months
Hedging program insulates Wholesale business
Liquidity Increased $1.0 billion to more than $4.0 billion
Bond proceeds of $678 million
MIBRAG proceeds of $258 million
Funded Reliant Acquisition
Capital Allocation Plan Expanded
Board authorized additional $170 million of share repurchases
during 2009
Total 2009 Share Repurchase Plan = $500 million
|
C. 2009E IPP EBITDA Multiples
NRG Pre Increase NRG Post Increase CPN MIR RRI DYN
Multiple 6.2 5.4 8.9 4.4 11.8 8.9
Weighted Peer Average 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
As a result of the increased guidance, NRG's
EBITDA multiple is further disconnected from other IPPs
"Exelon acknowledges that the value of NRG has increased through the acquisition of Reliant's retail
business, though downplays the benefit," Angie Storozynski of Macquarie Research, 7/2/09
"Jefferies believes that on a stand-alone basis there is a valuation gap between NRG and other
merchant generators," Paul Fremont of Jefferies & Co., 7/2/09
IPP Multiples
(1) EBITDA estimate source FactSet; (2) Enterprise Value calculated using 7/7/09 closing stock prices; (3) Implied multiple is calculated using an average of 6 research analysts' price targets to
determine NRG's Enterprise Value divided by the 2009 EBITDA estimates
8.3x
|
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E
EBITDA 0.976 0.731 1.502 2.279 2.291 2.5
Stock Price 18.03 23.56 28.01 43.34 23.33 22.08
Adjusted CFO 0.71 0.489 0.923 1.633 1.5 1.769
Financial Performance Focused on Cash Generation ...
.... with substantial benefits realized by shareholders
until the market dislocation last Fall
($ in billions)
($/share split adjusted)
Notes: Adjusted CFO excludes collateral movements, working capital movements and include discontinued operations; 2006 adjusted for the hedge reset. Yearly stock prices represent
year-end prices, 2009 closing stock price of $22.08 on 7/7/09.
NRG: A Track Record of Growth
and Financial Success
At NRG, growth is accompanied by delivery in financial performance
Note: Cash Flow Yield based on
common stock share price of
$22.08 as of July 7, 2009
23%
Recurring Free
Cash Flow Yield
|
Waxman-Markey Summary and Implications
Passed in the House of Representatives on June 26th by a vote of 219-212
Emissions targets of 2005 base are 97% by 2012, 83% by 2020, 58% by 2030 and 17% by 2050
Allocations:
Formula allocates about 40% of historical emissions to merchant coal in first year
Declines to 30% by 2025 and 0% by 2030
Allocations are based on each year's actual emissions (see below for implications for EXC)
Massive support for low-carbon development (including new nuclear)
20% national renewable energy standard (RES) by 2025
EPA estimates $13 / metric ton initial allowance price -- ~$10 less than expectations last year
Waxman-
Markey
Summary
Impact on NRG (existing portfolio)
Provides near-neutral impact in early years and slight
negative towards end of next decade
Meaningful impact in post 2025... however, NINA projects
and other low/no carbon development capable of fully
offsetting
Bill's support for low-carbon development (including
nuclear and coal with CCS) allows NRG to decarbonize
faster
RES impact is already largely felt in Texas and heat rates
have already compensated for expected renewables plus
transmission
In W-M - unlike in previous bills - merchant coal plants
receive annual allocations tied to their emissions in that year,
rather than a fixed base period's emissions
Analysts and EXC themselves agree that this will lead
coal plants to include only the 60% of their allowance
costs for which they do not receive allocations in their
wholesale market bids
Implies about a 25 -35%1 reduction in carbon uplift for
EXC, due to the high % of time EXC plants face power
prices set by coal "on the margin"
Strong renewable energy standard would likely bring
significant wind generation from high quality wind resources
in the Dakotas to EXC's Illinois region
This will likely suppress heat rates and nuclear revenues
further, due to historical lack of meaningful state RPS
Impact on Exelon
1. In a 70% coal on margin region, uplift without this provision would be expected to be: (1MT/MWH * 70%) + (0.5MT/MWH* 30%) = .85
With this provision, uplift would be (0.6 MT/MWH * 70%) + (0.5MT/MWH * 30%) = .57; See Bernstein, 5/22/09
House Bill was more favorable to NRG's and less of a
benefit to Exelon's standalone prospects
|
Will Waxman-Markey Pass in the Senate?
Arguments for Passage in Senate
Arguments Against Passage in Senate
"Rowe's assessment of the likelihood of passage was...less than a 50/50 chance of passage by the Senate"
- Sanford Bernstein 6/10/2009
Momentum from passage by the House
Strong support from President Obama, who has started
actively campaigning for passage
Support from Senate leadership
Votes not near there yet: according to Energy and
Environment Daily, there are currently 35 "yes" votes
and 10 "probably yes" votes of the needed 60
Republicans see this as a major campaign issue in
2010, and are likely to close ranks
Senate dynamics are more challenging than House:
about 1/4 of "yes" votes in House were from New York
and California
Of the 60 Democrats, many come from states with
pressure to vote "no" (see chart on right)
If passed, will likely be more "moderate" than House,
eg. further downward pressure on price, more $ for
nuclear and other low/no carbon resources
Significant pressure = from states where W-M lost in House (among majority of reps)
and where all or most Democrats voted "no"
Moderate pressure = from state where W-M lost in House and where at least one
Democrat defected
Slight pressure with asterix = from States with no House democrats
From Real Clear Politics 6/29/2009: "Climate Bill Faces Long Odds in Senate"
Passage in the Senate is in no way certain -
NRG believes it's 50/50 at best
|
Multiple Risks to Exelon's Carbon Value Proposition
Exelon shows attractive carbon upside to shareholders ...
.... but their scenarios don't consider a broad enough set of outcomes
Carbon bill passage is not a given
If passed, it will include a renewable standard, bringing wind from Dakotas
into Chicago
If not passed, there will still likely be a renewable standard (see current
Senate energy bill)
Year-to-year updating of allocations to merchant coal lowers carbon uplift
EPA price scenarios much lower than what Exelon portrays
And..
....Even if Exelon gets carbon windfall, will regulators let them keep it?
Carbon increases regulator concern over high Exelon earnings even as
consumers pay higher prices due to carbon, RES and new transmission
Risk of clawback increases as carbon prices increase
What could regulators do?
Re-regulate affiliated generation used to serve hybrid utilities' LDCs
Negotiate a long-term contract that "splits the difference" between re-
regulation and market
Propose a windfall profits tax or other mechanism to "claw back" carbon
(and PJM energy/capacity market) uplift
Current state budget problems make these scenarios more likely
Even if legislation becomes a reality, there is no certainty in
Exelon's ability to realize significant economic benefits
|
NRG Path for Cost Certainty on New Nuclear
NRG Path for Cost Certainty on New Nuclear
Exelon's examples cited for comparison of
overnight costs are not comparable to NRG
estimate
All projects are First of a Kind
Engineering with unproven records of
construction or operation vs that of
NRG's ABWR technology that has been
completed in Japan built 4x on time and
on budget
At least 2 of the 4 sites are Greenfield
which have significant infrastructure
costs vs that of NRG's Brownfield site
which has been designed and carries
infrastructure for 2 additional units
What Exelon Said(1)
Main EXC Misunderstanding on NRG Nuclear
NRG has leading position for nuclear for minimal capital at risk due to: 1) pre-certified
and fully engineered design; 2) selection by DOE as one of four for loan guaranty;
3) support funding for "strategic industry" from Japanese government due to strategic
Japanese partnerships; and 4) EPC fixed price turnkey contract
(1) From Exelon July 2009 presentation, pg. 26
|
Exelon Uprates(1) NRG STP 3&4
Peak New MWs 1,326 1,080
MW Years (MWs available each year times number of years) 35,026 66,420
Overnight Cost ($M) $3,500 $4,000
Average Cost per kw ($) $2,600 $3,700
Cost per KW Year ($) $99 $60
Recourse Capital ($M) $3,500 $600(2)
Recourse Capital per kw ($) $2,600 $550
Recourse Capital per kw Year $99 $9
Exelon Nuclear Uprates vs. NRG's Advanced
Nuclear Project (STP 3&4)
Getting More "Bang-for-the Buck"
STP 3&4 has far less recourse capital at risk, and substantially more
years of operations at full capacity
(100%)
(40%)
Source: Exelon Corporation SEC filings and NRG estimates.
(1) Total uprates presented reflects Exelon's share of uprates in case of units jointly owned by others.
(2) Based on $1.2 bn total equity required for 60% of STP 3&4 with $300 MM of equity coming from both Toshiba and New Partner.
|
Creating Cost Certainty - Overnight Reference
Significant risk mitigation by selecting ABWR technology which has been built four times
Provides history of full engineering and nearly all quantities required for construction
are known
NRG will have a closed book, fixed price contract at financial closing, at which point
escalation risk will cease
Similarly, NRG intends to hedge its foreign exchange exposure as it makes its financial
commitments
NRG's choice of ABWR, with a fixed price contract, creates
significantly more price certainty than other developers
|
The Right Way to Develop Nuclear is OFF
the Balance Sheet, Not ON it
CPS
$4 B
NINA
(with new
partner)
$6 B
40%
60%
$10 B
US & Japan
Loan
$4.8 B
NINA Equity
$1.2 B
$6 B
80%
20%
Representative Project Cost and Sources of Funds (1)
NINA Share
Equity Sources
Toshiba
$300 MM
NRG
$600 MM
$1.2 B
New Partner
$300 MM
Maximize economic value for shareholders with minimum capital at risk
NINA
(1,080 MWs)
New Partner
(540 MWs)
CPS Energy
(1,080 MWs)
AA+
municipal
utility serving
its own load
- Mix of industrials and load
serving entities
- Average credit rating is single-A
- Several additional counterparties
have also shown interest in capacity
MOU
representing
1,600 MWs
(>100% of
available
capacity)
The Right Strategy:
Offtake Certainty
(1) Excludes $500 million non-recourse facility from Toshiba for long lead materials
|
EPC Contract Executed
EPC Contract executed by all parties on February 24, 2009
Key features include:
Open book period followed by Fixed Price Turnkey construction period
Contractual terms substantially the same as large fossil project
Subcontract between Fluor and Toshiba completed
Other benefits upon execution
Triggers $500mm long lead material credit facility
Triggers two additional EPC contracts with the same terms
Other milestones
Dec 2009 - Confirm guaranteed construction period (FNTP to Substantial
Completion)
Dec 2009 - Determine Guaranteed Net Output
Dec 2010 - Engineering ~85% complete
STP 3&4's EPC contract sets the standard for risk sharing between
project developers and vendors
|
The lack of a mature supply chain in the US and limited capacity of
supply globally for critical components is a significant challenge for
most new nuclear technologies, except the ABWR
Non-US Sourced
Digital I&C
NSSS Components
Reactor Pressure Vessel
Steam Generators
Reactor coolant pumps
Turbine Generator
Shaft Forgings
Plant Simulator
The Global supply chain for critical components has limited capacity.
In the US a limited number of suppliers are certified to supply new
plants
US Sourced
Large-bore (>12in) seamless alloy
steel pipe
ASME N-stamp pumps and valves
Nuclear Supply Chain
The ABWR is the only new nuclear technology that benefits from
an existing supply chain
Manufactures in owned facilities:
I&C
Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV)
Internals
Steam Generators
Reactor coolant pumps
Turbine Generator
Plant Simulator
With its long standing partner IHI
Reactor Pressure Vessels
Toshiba investment in JSW's
expansion
Steam Turbine and RPV Ultra-Heavy
forgings (sole source globally)
|
Training and Recruiting
Increase in refining, petrochemical, and power projects has catalyzed recruitment and vocational
training initiatives
STPNOC, partnered with training schools, has initiated nuclear specific training programs
Location
Texas projects are "open shop" which have proven to have higher productivity (2x's NE) and lower cost
Gulf Coast productivity is maintaining its typical high rate
Fluor is one of the largest big project constructors on Gulf Coast with significant experience in
modularization
Combination of Toshiba and Fluor capabilities in modularization will ensure smooth transfer
of knowledge of Japanese nuclear modularization techniques
Location of STP 3&4 (1.5 hours from Houston) is ideal for attracting craft labor
Timing
STP 3&4 will be ramping up craft in 2011/2012 as trained craft are rolling off Gulf Coast projects
Texas coal project under construction: Luminant Oak Grove, LMS Sandy Creek, CPS- Spruce
Project
Large oil & gas projects: 20+ million hour Chevron Pascagoula and Motiva Texas City, other
Productivity
Productivity will be set as part of the fixed price under the EPC Contract
Minor exception for nuclear island productivity: 2-3% sensitivity to capital costs
Labor - Quality and Availability
|
Toshiba's BWR and ABWR Experience
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1965
1960
Under Construction
Plants in Operation
Planning
Fukushima Daiichi 1
Hamaoka 1
Fukushima Daiichi 5
Fukushima Daiichi 6
Hamaoka 2
Onagawa 1
Hamaoka 3
Kashiwazaki Kariwa 2
Hamaoka 4
Onagawa 2
Onagawa 3
Hamaoka 5
Fukushima Daiichi 2
Tsuruga 1
Fukushima Daini 1
Kashiwazaki Kariwa 1
Fukushima Daini 3
Kashiwazaki Kariwa 3
Kashiwazaki Kariwa 6
Kashiwazaki Kariwa 7
Fukushima Daiichi 3
Lungmen 2
Ohma 1
Lungmen 1
Higashidori 1
TEPCO Higashidori 1
Fukushima Daiichi 7
TEPCO Higashidori 2
Namie Odaka 1
Fukushima Daiichi 8
Higashidori 2
Toshiba, as prime contractor on 17 BWRs, including two ABWRs, has built the
most BWR plants in the world and built the ABWRs in the shortest period of time
Entered business in 1966
Constructed 22 plants
17 as prime contractor
Toshiba BWR Experience
|
STPNOC is a top nuclear power operator with a performance
record equal to top fleet operators
STPNOC: Industry Leader
Productivity
Top decile marginal cost per EUCG
Low Fuel cost
One of the lowest reported production cost (1.35¢/kwh)
Highest producing two-unit nuclear plant (out of 33) three years in a row
Highest producing single unit in 2006 (unit 2)
Safety
The only U.S. plant with three safety trains per unit
Strenuous and continuous training program
Exposure limits twice as strict as required
Security
Design, strength of structures
Multiple layers, types of defenses
Upgrades since 9/11
Innovation
In cooperation with NRC, piloted risk analysis of plant components
Piloted post-9/11 security requirements
Two Best of The Best Awards-Only repeat-winner plant
Six Top Industry Practice Awards-Most for any plant
|
Analyzing Key Exelon "Growth" Driver(1)
Current ExGen Contract
Exelon's "prediction"2 of average PECO Rates
1. Exelon February investor presentation, page 9
2. Exelon EEI Conference November 2008 page 73. Exelon estimate on energy and capacity
3. Exelon Press release. ExGen winning offers. 6/17/09.
4. NRG estimates for energy and capacity
What actually happened...really
$107.5/MWh
$138.6/MWh
$115.2/MWh
$60/MWh
Energy/Capacity
T&D, Other
$100-102/MWh 3
$80-$85/MWh 4
PECO roll off uplift has not lived up to November expectation
Exelon provided "illustrative" guidance on PECO rates increasing to $107.50/MWH in 2011
based on PPL's auction results(1)
|
RPM Capacity Auction results in PJM:
"norm" for RTO?
"The results of the recent RPM capacity auction
are not anticipated to reflect a new 'norm' due
to an anticipated market response to low
clearing prices and rule changes for demand
response bidding"
Exelon Investor Presentation, July 2009 Pg. 41
1 Unforced Capacity MW from Exelon July 2009 Investor presentation (pg. 41), adjusted by pool wide EFORd of 6.44% for 2012/2013 and 6.21% for 2011/2012 per PJM auction report.
Capacity clearing prices per PJM RPM auction results. Share price impact based on 7.9x market implied EV/EBITDA multiple (based on 10/17/08 enterprise value and Wall Street EBITDA
estimates) and 8% discount rate based on average of Wall Street estimates
RPM Capacity auction results for 2012/2013 implies a $280mm or
$2.18/share negative impact on Exelon's capacity gross margin1
Locational price signal sent to incentivize new generation where needed. Higher
cleared prices in PJM East, lower in PJM West.
RTO clears as the lowest priced zone, as it has been four out of six times in PJM
base residual auctions.
"Demand response was NOT the primary cause of
the price decline in RTO"
"Next year we expect persistency of high prices in
PJM East and low prices in PJM West"
"Several generators now argue to investors that
upcoming PJM straw proposals will "correct" the
situation...We believe many analysts and
generators do not fully understand why the RTO
price was so low, and view demand response the
primary reason for the decline...we disagree."
-- Brian Chin, Citigroup June 28, 2009
Exelon View
Street View
We believe prices will be lower in RTO and higher in PJM East
|
Federal Renewable Standards could require 80-100 GW of
renewable generation in the Midwest and PJM regions
CREZ
Transmission
Green Power
Express
Transmission
12008 PJM and MISO demand grown at 1%/year to 1350 TWh/year, 20% RES requirement = 270 TWh of REC volume to meet 20% RPS requirement; To
meet 270 tWh need 90 GW of wind turbines @ 35% capacity factor (90 GW*35 %*8760 hours/year=270 TWh/year)
Exelon Comments NRG Perspective
Federal Renewable Energy Standards (RES) will result in incremental wind build in Texas to support REC purchases in other markets PJM/MISO could require 80-1001 GW of new wind generation to meet PJM/MISO state compliance requirements (IL 25% by 2025; PA 20% by 2020; MN 25% by 2025).
It is unrealistic to assume ERCOT will provide all RECS required in MISO/PJM given the size of CREZ and current renewable penetration in Texas.
ERCOT Wind: Wind and transmission build-out to meet federal RPS confined to Texas. CREZ proposes 18 GW of transmission resources.
A full wind build-out in ERCOT alone cannot meet required US Federal compliance targets
Current wind penetration already high in Texas and market impact already observed
Upper Midwest Wind: Dependent on not yet approved transmission buildout and price will be spread over a broader area.
Conditional FERC approval reached by Green Power Express project allowing interconnection of 12 GW of wind power into Midwest
100+GW in PJM/MISO interconnection queue
Midwest Class 5+ wind resources to produce more REC's per dollar of wind investment
PJM and MISO are far from meeting RPS compliance requirements; Only 2% of average demand - just beginning to see market impact
Mid-Atlantic Wind: Limited wind resources - REC's purchased from other areas
Sourcing to come primarily from Midwest wind interconnecting into Mid-Atlantic via large PJM transmission backbone projects like PATH, TRAIL, etc.
Federal RES is so big that it will require development of our
the best wind resources in the Midwest to comply.
|
Natural Gas Impact
Heat Rate Impact
Increasing long-term natural gas prices.
2014 Henry Hub up $0.20
EXC Markets: Exelon Gross Margin Appears
to be Under Severe Pressure
Exelon appears to be forward hedging into
sharply declining heat rate market
Capacity Auction Impact
$/MW-day
($1,090M)(2)
$236M(3)
($282M)(4)
Gross Margin and Terminal Value Impact(1)
on Share Price
($8.80)/share
Decrease to EXC
Share Price(1)
(1) Assumes 2014 terminal year using 6/11/09 curve. Share price impact based on 7.9x market implied EV/EBITDA multiple and 8% discount rate; (2) Heat Rate sensitivity : (0.93) mmbtu/mwh weighted average implied market
Heat Rate change (10/17/08-6/11/09) * $7.80 mmbtu 6/11/09 NYMEX NG price * 150 Twh's per Exelon Fact Book = $(1,090)MM; (3) Gas Sensitivity: $0.20/mmbtu change in natural gas * 7.88 mmbtu/mwh 10/17/08 Weighted
average implied market Heat Rate * 150 Twh's = $236MM; (4) Unforced Capacity MW (non-MAAC, MAAC, EMAAC) from Exelon 3/10/2009 2009 Investor Conference presentation (pg. 39), adjusted by pool wide EFORd of 6.44% for
2012/2013 and 6.21% for 2011/2012 per PJM auction report. Capacity clearing prices per PJM RPM auction results.
(4)
EXC seeks to offset its weakening market prospects through
NRG's portfolio at an inadequate price
=
|
Negative Impact of Market and Portfolio Changes on
Exchange Ratio- Exelon Gross Margin Impacts
Market and other changes affecting Exelon
since 10/17/08 would imply a 19% increase
in the Exchange Offer ratio
Implied Changes in Exchange Ratio(1)
Gross Margin (2) Pension Liability (3) PJM Capacity (2) Net Debt (4)
0.545 0.612 0.645 0.646 0
activity 0.545 0.067 0.033 0.02 0.019 0.646
EXC Value Considerations
Source: NRG analysis, based on Exelon disclosure before and after 10/17/08.
Notes: (1) Represents selected factors that impact the Exchange Ratio for illustrative purposes and is not representative of all factors that could impact the Exchange Ratio offer. The exchange ratios are not
indicative, nor are they meant to imply, an exchange ratio that the NRG Board would accept or reject
(2) Assumes 8% discount rate (average of Wall Street analyst estimates) and 7.9x market implied EV/EBITDA multiple (based on 10/17/08 enterprise value and Wall Street EBITDA estimates)
(3) Exelon's net Pension and OPEB liability increased by $3,791 million from $2,472 million from Exelon's 9/30/08 10Q to $6,309 million from the 3/31/09 10Q
(4) Exelon's net debt decreased by $1.5 billion, caused by an increase in debt of $500mm and cash increase of $2.0 billion from the difference between the 9/30/08 10Q and 3/31/09 10Q
|
PRESENTATION
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the NRG Energy conference call to discuss
Exelons revised unsolicited proposal and upcoming annual stockholders meeting. At this time, all
participants are in listen-only mode. We will be facilitating a question-and-answer session towards
the end of this conference. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being
recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for
todays call, Ms. Nahla Azmy, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Good morning and welcome to our conference call to discuss Exelons revised unsolicited
proposal and our upcoming annual stockholder meeting. This call is being broadcast live over the
phone and from our website at www.nrgenergy.com. You can access the call presentation and press
release furnished with the SEC through a link on the Investor Relations page of our website. A
replay of the call will be posted on our website.
This call, including the formal presentation and question-and-answer session, will be limited to
one hour. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question with just
one follow-up.
And now for the obligatory Safe Harbor statement. During the course of this mornings presentation,
management will reiterate forward-looking statements made in todays press release regarding future
events and financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks
and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the
forward-looking statements. We caution you to consider the important risk factors contained in our
press release and other filings with the SEC that could cause actual results to differ materially
from those in the forward-looking statements in the press release and conference call.
In addition, please note that the date of this conference call is July 8, 2009 and any
forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be
reasonable as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of
future events except as required by law.
During this mornings call, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures of the
Companys operating and financial results. For complete information regarding our non-GAAP
financial information, the most directly comparable GAAP measures and a quantitative reconciliation
of those figures, please refer to todays press release and this presentation.
In addition, we will be discussing Exelon Corporations outstanding exchange offer and the
solicitation of proxies for our 2009 annual meeting. Todays discussion does not constitute any
offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or a solicitation or proxy of
any stockholder of NRG Energy nor is this a substitute for the exchange offer documents or proxy
materials currently on file with the SEC. For important additional information regarding the
exchange offer and the proxy statements, please see todays news releases and the Form 8-K.
Now with that, it is my pleasure to turn this over to David Crane, NRGs President and Chief
Executive Officer. David?
Good morning, everyone. We appreciate everyone taking the time to listen in on this unusual
conference call. I am joined today by Bob Flexon, our Chief Financial Officer, who will be handling
part of the presentation. I am also joined by three additional senior executives of NRG who are
responsible for important parts of the Companys business and will be available to answer any
specific questions that you might have in their area Mauricio Gutierrez, who runs the Companys
commercial operations; Steve Corneli who is responsible for the Companys approach to climate
change legislation; and I think a new person for many of the people who have known us for a long
time, Jason Few who is responsible for the retail business of Reliant Energy since they have come
onboard NRG.
Our presentation today, which, as Nahla said, is available on our website and which we are going to
be referring to, is divided into two interrelated, but distinct parts. First, we wish to outline
and explain the Boards response to Exelons revised offer of July 2. That part of the presentation
will be handled by me. Then we have a midyear business update that will be presented by Bob.
Just one point in advance of Bobs business update, obviously, it is out of the ordinary for NRG to
provide this type of information between quarterly calls. In normal times under ordinary
circumstances, this would be precisely the type of information that we would provide you on our
second-quarter call at the end of July. But obviously these are not normal or ordinary times for
NRG or its shareholders.
On July 21, the shareholders of NRG are going to make decisions on the size and makeup of NRGs
Board of Directors, which could have far-reaching consequences for the future of the Company and
the value of your shareholdings. It is important to the management of NRG and to our Board of
Directors that the NRG shareholders make those decisions with the best information possible. For
that reason, while it will not be possible for us today to give you all of the information that we
normally give on a second-quarter call, Bob is going to present to you the most current information
possible about the performance and prospects of your company.
Now getting into the presentation on slide 4. First, I want to summarize our Boards response,
which was delivered to Exelon in a letter addressed to John Rowe this morning. And I think that
there are three noteworthy elements both in Exelons revised offer and concurrently in the Boards
response to that offer.
First, there is the modest size of the bump itself relative to the value gap that existed last
October and which only widened significantly over the past eight months due primarily to positive
actions taken by NRG while Exelon has stood still.
Second, there is the fact that Exelon predicated its increase overwhelmingly on a very, very
substantial level of cost synergies identified by their consultants. The level of these synergies
is so great that we will be the first to admit that we were surprised. We had not previously
conceived of such a level being achievable out of NRGs own business or out of the combination.
Third and somewhat conversely to the second point, because Exelons increased offer is driven by
increased synergies, it means, and Exelon is quite explicit about this in their presentation, that
Exelon has ascribed an irrationally low price not only to NRGs core value proposition, but also to
NRGs several growth initiatives that have progressed so successfully over the past eight months.
Growth initiatives, which, as I have mentioned before, have differentiated NRG from both Exelon and
the rest of the sector.
Now on slide 5, before we get into the fundamental economic view, for those on the phone who
subscribe to the market has perfect knowledge philosophy, we would note that notwithstanding
Exelons herculean attempt to characterize their revised offer as a 44% high premium deal by
developing an all new approach to indicative premium, the actual premium to the NRG share price at
the close of business on the night before the revised offer was a far more pedestrian 7.9%. Suffice
it to say that we dont think their
approach, which is to calculate their offer against our peer groups performance, is nearly as
relevant as calculating their offer against our own performance.
But turning to slide 6, everyone knows the markets are volatile and more important to us are the
fundamentals and particularly the cash. As we have said repeatedly over the last six years, we have
always managed the business for cash and that is the main reason or the main approach to valuing
Exelons revised offer and slide 6 presents the crux of the valuation issue.
This was the main cause of our Boards objection to the Exelon offer in October. It was the main
cause of our objection in February and it remains the main cause of our objection to their revised
offer now. No matter what future year is important to you, Exelons revised offer is dramatically
unfair to NRG shareholders from the point of view of free cash flow contribution and free cash flow
accretion dilution. Indeed, acceptance of this offer will result in severe double-digit free cash
flow dilution to NRG shareholders for years to come.
On slide 7, by another basic, but nonetheless fundamental valuation metric, which is discount to
replacement cost, Exelons revised offer comes closer to compensating NRG fully for our baseload
fleet in Texas than their previous one, but based on their own public estimation of what our
baseload fleet in Texas is worth. But at 0.545, they stand to get the 18,000 MW balance of the NRG
generating fleet for free.
Another way of thinking about this is that the NRG, which existed before we bought Texas Genco in
early 2006, which was the beginning of our expansion into Texas, at that time, our Company had an
enterprise value in the $6 billion to $7 billion range, which Exelon would be getting for free at
the current price of their proposal.
So in summary, by these two measures and by several other valuation measures considered by our
Board of Directors, 0.545, while a measurable and welcome improvement over 0.485, falls far short
of compensating NRG shareholders for the core value of their company.
Having addressed the true value of where NRG is now, lets talk about the considerable additional
value of where NRG is going. As demonstrated on slide 8, NRG has growth prospects, the depth, range
and most importantly the value of which are unrivaled within the power industry. Exelons revised
offer of July 2 includes a breakthrough of sorts in that, for the first time, Exelon explicitly
ascribes value to some of these growth initiatives. The problem is that the value that they ascribe
is extremely low. From our point of view, explicably low. As you can see at the bottom of the
slide, $1.10 per NRG share for everything, including Reliant Retail.
While we dont have the time today to provide a point-by-point explanation of all of the
shareholder value embedded in each of NRGs many growth initiatives, let me hit a couple of high
points. First and foremost, Reliant Retail, which Exelon says is worth $1 per NRG share. Today, NRG
is announcing that based on significant part on the more than $200 million of EBITDA that Reliant
has generated in the two months that we have owned it, we are projecting that Reliant will
contribute at least $400 million to NRGs adjusted EBITDA over the last eight months of 2009.
While we listened last week to the Exelon economist who said that Reliant was worth $1 a share
essentially because that is what we paid for it, its hard for us to believe that most people will
believe that a retail franchise that can produce over $1 per NRG share in its first eight months of
operation under NRG is worth only $1 per NRG share in total.
The way we believe that the market should value Reliant under NRG ownership, and again I am looking
at slide 9, is a retail electricity business integrated as to its supply with physical generation
in the same region where its principal load is more valuable than a stand-alone retail business.
This, in essence, is what John Rowe said on his call last week and we agree with him.
Reliant, in the two months we have owned it, has been substantially integrated with our wholesale
supply already, but not totally. As such, being conservative, we believe a lower multiple in the
range of 5x should be applied to Reliants earnings until we can demonstrate to the market full
integration. This leads to the $4.50 per share incremental value of Reliant to NRG shareholders,
which we believe they should be fully compensated for by Exelon.
When the business becomes fully integrated, which we expect to occur before the end of 2009, we
believe Reliants financial performance is worthy of at least a 6x multiple, suggesting that there
is further upside for NRG shareholders in this area in the not-too-distant future.
Slide 10, turning to nuclear. The differences of opinion with respect to the value of nuclear
development that has been expressed between Exelon and NRG is extreme. But as we mentioned in our
letter response to Mr. Rowe this morning, if Exelon really thinks nuclear development has no value,
then why have they spent tens of millions of dollars over the past two years developing a
greenfield nuclear project just down the road from our STP plant in Victoria County.
In our mind, there is considerable option value in being at or near the front of the queue at the
NRC; at being the lead project in the COLA process for the ABWR technology, which is the
technology, which Exelon itself recently embraced after pursuing the ESBWR for the better part of
two years; that being one of the four final projects in the DoE loan guarantee; at having coveted
production slots for ultra-heavy forgings at Japan Steel Works; and most of all, at having an
existing nuclear site originally designed for four units with a skilled management team and
workforce and hundreds of millions of dollars of common facilities already in place. To Exelon, in
particular, this position in the nuclear renaissance is worth several dollars per NRG share.
What all this expansion means to us is financial growth. On slide 11, and what were showing here
is that this financial growth will build on our track record of past growth. Recall that NRG was a
$600 million of EBITDA company in 2004. Everything we are doing now is designed to contribute
significantly to the Companys financial performance, not only in the long term, but also as we are
demonstrating today with our announcement about 2009 EBITDA in the short to medium term. Even our
nuclear development program, through the sell-down of equity interest, the sale of intellectual
property and development know-how and supply chain initiatives, has the ability to contribute
EBITDA well before the first new nuclear units come online in 2016, 2017.
Now I dont want to sound like a broken record, but this is growth that NRG shareholders should be
paid for and they should be paid for much more than $1.10 per NRG share.
Now on slide 12, having discussed NRGs own extrinsic and intrinsic growth, lets move on to
discuss the new feature of Exelons revised offer $3.2 billion of cost synergies, potentially
worth over $9 a share.
Before we dive into this, let me make this perfectly clear. Let me make perfectly clear NRGs
position. We support value whenever and wherever it can be found and that applies to combination
cost synergies as much to any other form of financial value. Our viewpoint is that synergies, like
other forms of value, have to be realistically attainable and in the case of combination synergies,
they also need to be equitably shared between the parties. These are the two points, which I would
like to address on slides 12 and 13.
With respect to combination cost synergies, the annual savings levels identified by Exelons
consultants appear on slide 12. While we would very like to have these consultants demonstrate to
us this level of saving, it is not clear to us, at this point in time, how such a high level of
saving is achieved out of a combination with NRG.
In the case of both corporate/IT and trading, two of the bigger areas of savings, the amount
claimed by Exelon as a saving exceeds NRGs total spend in this area. In the case of fossil
operations where the Exelon consultants believe it is possible to reduce our headcount by 350, we
would note that their assumed fully loaded cost per such an employee of $225,000 is actually 74%
higher than our actual
average fully loaded cost per O&M employee. So what we are saying is that while we are not
foreclosing the possibility that Exelons synergy number is attainable, we have some reason to be
skeptical.
And with that, let me go into the second part of the synergy equation. Its our belief that
combination cost synergies, the burden of which always falls disproportionately on the acquired
company, should be shared equitably. Exelon proposes to share cost synergies with NRG shareholders
ratably. Meaning NRG shareholders would realize only 18% of the benefit of any synergies achieved.
If Exelon were to agree to share 50% of the projected synergies with the target company, as is more
commonly done in these types of transactions, that would allow them to increase their offer to NRG
by another $3.50 per NRG share. That is demonstrated on slide 13.
Now finally and moving on to slide 14, I want to address one aspect of the transaction risk. As all
of you know from our previous communication, NRGs Board of Directors has plenty of reason to be
skeptical about the certainty of Exelons revised offer, which, like the original offer, continues
to lack committed debt financing or assurances from the rating agency that Exelons credit rating
requirements will be satisfied, among other conditions. There continues to be no word from Exelon
about breakup fees or downside protection on their fixed exchange ratio offer. But of all the many
conditions and shortcomings in their offer, we remain particularly focused on Exelons requirement
to issue additional equity.
Exelon last week conceded that they need to issue a $1.1 billion of equity-linked instruments in
connection with this transaction, but that number assumes that Exelon is able to raise $1.6 billion
of additional funds through asset sales. As most of the asset sales would be of NRG assets, we are
obviously intimately familiar with the complicated web of partnership agreements, offtake contracts
and financing arrangements that surround the most valuable of the assets on the Exelon for-sale
list. And suffice it to say that selling all of these assets for fair value under normal
circumstances would take considerable time and skill.
In this market environment, as a for seller with a de facto time deadline imposed by the rating
agencies, the results of a sales process are likely to be suboptimal. Raising a considerable
concern on our part that Exelon will need to offer much more than $1.1 billion in equity to cover
either a delay or a shortfall in proceeds from asset sales.
Slide 15, in summary, speaking on behalf of NRGs Board of Directors, we are pleased that Exelon
has increased its offer and we are intrigued at the possibilities of significantly larger
combination synergies. But Exelons continued unwillingness to reflect the value of NRGs core
business or NRGs unique growth prospects in its revised offer gives us concern that they ever will
offer NRG shareholders fair value for their NRG shares and fair protection against the considerable
transaction risk inherent in their proposed combination.
If they were to recognize simply the full and fair value of our growth initiatives, additional
details of which we have provided well, which Bob will be providing today we will sit down
with them to understand and quantify the true synergies and to explain to them the fully embedded
value of our business, not all of which is yet readily apparent to them or to the market.
Now speaking on my own behalf to all of the NRG shareholders who are contemplating their vote in
the upcoming proxy contest, let me say the following. Obviously it took eight months for Exelon to
improve their offer and they did so with obvious reluctance only last week at the 11th hour because
it became abundantly clear to them that if they didnt improve their offer, they were headed for a
loss in the proxy contest on July 21. Their increase very clearly was a welcome step in the right
direction, but there still is a lot of distance to cover both in terms of the price and the terms
of the offer. If you vote Exelons slate onto the NRG Board on July 21, my personal prediction is
that Exelons movement in the right direction toward a full, fair and reasonable offer for NRG will
end on that day. With that, I turn it over to Bob Flexon.
Good morning, everyone. As David commented, with the annual meeting quickly approaching, we
felt it appropriate to provide our shareholders an update on our business performance and plans for
2009 ahead of our normally scheduled second-quarter call.
I will began on slide 17 and provide an overview of our operating performance, our commercial and
retail operations, including integration progress and our financial outlook and plans for the
balance of the year. While additional detail on these items will be covered in more detail, the key
themes, our top decile operating performance remains the goal. This includes safety, as well as
plant operating performance. Bringing retail into the NRG portfolio is underway with noteworthy
progress integrating the wholesale supply and risk management functions within the retail business.
And finally, the combination of excellent performance from our retail business, our wholesale
operations and the effectiveness of our hedging program leads the way for todays announced
increase in 2009 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $325 million to $2.5 billion. This in turn seals our
ability to commit and execute on an increased share repurchase plan totaling $500 million during
2009.
Additional operating performance is provided on slide 18. Our safety performance for the year is
well inside top quartile performance, but, as stated a moment ago, top decile performance remains
the goal. Our baseload plant operations are on pace for record reliability in 2009 with the
Texas-base load fleet having an exceptional year.
Cedar Bayou 4, our new combined cycle plant, reached commercial operating date, or COD, on June 25,
just in time to meet the surging power demand. Since COD, the net capacity and equivalent
availability factors have been 83% and 99% respectively, vailable to meet a surging demand for the
power in ERCOT during the recent heat wave.
FORNRG 2.0, our performance improvement initiative launched at the beginning of 2009 following our
successful conclusion of FORNRG 1.0, has gotten off to a quick start. The 2009 component of the
overall goal was a 20 basis point improvement over our 2008 baseline return on invested capital.
That component of the goal was achieved by June 30, 2009, six months ahead of target through a
multitude of improvements that will continue over the remainder of the year.
Slide 19 provides additional color on nuclear operating performance at STP 1 and 2. STP continues
to distinguish itself as best-in-class, demonstrating industry leadership in areas such as safety,
capacity factors, reliability and megawatt hours generated.
Moving on to slide 20, our Comm Ops and risk teams are focused on integrating the retail supply
function into Comm Ops and matching the retail generation portfolios. We continued executing
strategic hedges for our baseload generation recently, adding 3.5 terawatt hours of power
equivalent hedges in 2010 at levels significantly above current market prices, which can be seen on
the hedge position graph at the top left.
ERCOT load recovered significantly in June, down just 0.5% on a weather-normalized basis versus
June of 2008. This compared to the first five months of the year in ERCOT that was down
approximately 4% versus 2008. PJM year-over-year on a weather-normalized demand continues to be 3%
to 4% below prior-year levels.
Our gas portfolio, including Cedar Bayou 4, was nearly 100% committed during the highest priced
days in late June, which in turn have continued to push up forward heat rates reflecting the sound
fundamentals within the Texas market.
During the first two months of NRG ownership, Reliants retail business covered on slide 21
performed significantly above plan delivering over $200 million in adjusted EBITDA during the
months of May and
June. These results were fueled by continued downward gas prices above normal weather, renewed
focus on acquisition and retention and effective hedging. Market conditions at our current level of
execution should enable the retail business to deliver in excess of $400 million in adjusted EBITDA
for the eighth months in 2009 of NRG ownership.
Reliant has relaunched the C&I business segment and continues to maintain a number one ERCOT share.
This is significant given more than 7.8 terawatt hours of annualized load that was not bid from
October 08 through March of 09. Since May 1, in concert with our mass business price moves and
full channel execution, acquisitions of new customers were up 25% in June. Despite higher than
normal heat, which leads to higher overall bills, Reliant achieved a 10% reduction in churn during
June versus May. This is a very strong and very positive trend that we remain focused on.
Additionally, NRGs generation assets, risk and supply management capabilities have allowed Reliant
to more effectively hedge and stabilize customer pricing despite underlying commodity moves.
Lowering prices through the summer months in Texas demonstrates our commitment to the long-term
viability of this business. NRG acquired a strong retail brand and a very experienced competitive
retail team. Removing the middleman, the financial counterparties affords Reliant collateral
efficiency, which is being passed on to our customers. All of these improvements culminate a much
stronger Reliant and NRG.
Slide 22 provides the updated financial outlook for the year. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2009 is
being increased by the $325 million to $2.5 billion driven by the $400 million adjusted EBITDA
contribution from Reliant for the eight months of ownership. This was partially offset by a $75
million reduction in the wholesale business EBITDA due to higher than anticipated costs. $2.5
billion of adjusted EBITDA will be an all-time record for the Company.
Included in cash from operations, but excluded from recurring free cash flow, is the anticipated
retail collateral NRG will post later in 2009 as the retail ringfence is removed and the Merrill
Lynch credit sleeve is terminated. Funding in this collateral will be sourced from the proceeds of
the $700 million bond offering that occurred on June 2, 2009. Removal of the ringfence will allow
the free flow of cash from the retail subsidiary to the parent facilitating and contributing
towards the Companys capital allocation program. Based on the July 7 closing stock price of
$22.08, this translates to recurring free cash flow yield of 23% or $5.13 per share.
Slide 23 provides additional financial information for 2009. In addition to the record adjusted
EBITDA outlook, liquidity at June 30 exceeded $4 billion, also an all-time high for NRG. This $1
billion increase since the first quarter was driven by the $700 million bond offering, the net
proceeds from the sale of MIBRAG and cash from operations. These cash inflows were partially offset
by the purchase of Reliant during the second quarter.
Finally, this combination of higher earnings and cash flows, along with a record liquidity level,
leads to todays other announcement that our share buyback commitment for 2009 is being increased
from the existing $330 million to $500 million. Our plan is to complete these repurchases by
year-end; although this is dependent on having open trading windows.
My last slide on page 24 provides a comparative view of various EBITDA multiples. Prior to guidance
being increased, our trading multiple was six times. Adjusted for the guidance change, the multiple
compresses down to 5.2 times, well below the peer average of 8.3 times and the composite sell side
analyst view of 7.2 times. As you can see on the bottom right-hand portion of the slide, using
these various multiples with our revised outlook highlights the undervalued nature of our equity,
supporting our action to expand our 2009 share repurchase program. At this point, I will turn it
back to David for concluding remarks.
Thank you, Bob. Looking at slide 26, the last slide, the conclusion slide, the Companys track
record of improved financial performance as measured by adjusted EBITDA and cash flow from
operations over the past six years, what I would tell you about this, the power generation
business, and for those of you who have known me for the last several years even before I came to
NRG, would know Ive been saying this for a long time it is a capital-intensive, cyclical,
commodity-driven business. Having experiences up close to the previous industry downcycle at the
beginning of this decade, we set out to build the new NRG on a business model that would work
through both up cycles and down cycles.
Today, as Bob has discussed and this slide demonstrates, with $2.5 billion in EBITDA for 2009, in
the midst of the worst down cycle that any of us will ever experience hopefully, I think we show
the full extent of our success in this regard. We not only have built the Company to survive the
downturn, we have built one that will prosper. Lacy, on that note, we would be happy to open
send the floor back to you for some questions and answers.
QUESTION AND ANSWER
(Operator Instructions). Anthony Crowdell, Jefferies.
Good morning. Just a question on the increase in EBITDA, it is a pickup of about $325 million.
I think roughly $150 million of that pickup was related to Reliant. Is that correct at all? So can
I assume the other $175 million from synergies or plant performance is recurring?
Well, I think the way you should look at the guidance is that we had guidance out there of
2.175 and that was just the wholesale business. Reliant is increasing it by $400 million and then
on the wholesale side, it is coming in by 75. So you get the net increase of $325 million to the
$2.5 billion.
Youd attribute some of the increase to plant performance, strong at STP. You are saying
though that mainly the pickup was Reliant, so we can assume that that would be recurring?
That is right and on the wholesale side, we have certainly strong operating performance. We
had slight uptick in some unexpected costs at the gross margin level side. But net net, the overall
improvement is on the retail side and I would look at it as recurring.
Great, thank you.
[Neel Mishra].
Given the strong results from the retail unit year to date, are you considering raising the
normalized EBITDA run rate guidance above $200 million? Besides the stickiness in pricing, are you
seeing dynamics that are specific to this year?
Neel, I think our run rate midcycle was $250 million, not $200 million, which we already
raised once since we owned it. I guess what we would say is its a brave new world out there and we
have only owned Reliant Retail for two months and we are a very conservative company. So we are not
prepared to say that the midcycle performance of the business is more than $250 million. I think at
the time, which I mentioned would probably be at the end of the year, that we could declare that
the business was absolutely fully integrated. At that time, we would be in a better position to
have a sense of what the midcycle run rate is. But for now, we are sticking with the $250 million.
We are sticking with that story, Neel.
Okay. And then can you briefly discuss your opinions as to the positives and negatives that
Exelons investment grade balance sheet would provide you now that the credit markets have
normalized a little bit more? Does NRG still take the view that a generation company should stay a
notch below investment grade?
Well, let me start on that, Neel, and then I will hand it over to Bob to provide you with more
detail. My basic view of investment grade in the merchant generation business is that at least one
of the rating agencies has previously stated that they think that the competitive power generation
business is fundamentally a BB business and I take them at their word on that.
I am sure that there is a level of investment grade balance sheet where the low cost of the capital
and the ability to trade without posting any sort of collateral makes it easy, but I will tell you
that I dont think that that is investment grade rating in BBB land. I think that is an investment
grade rating in A or AA land.
And what concerns me, and I have seen this time and time again in my 20 years in this industry, I
would tell you that I think the worst, absolute worst position to be in in this industry in terms
of trying to maximize value to your shareholders is to be BBB- because when you are BBB-, you are
not working for your shareholders anymore, you are working for the rating agencies because you
cannot afford even a single notch downgrade. And we have seen that story and I dont want to be
part of that story. But that is just my point of view. Bob Flexon?
Neel, I would just add to that that if youre going to be sub-investment grade, you just
certainly need a liquidity structure that supports that what you want to do around your hedging
program. For us, the first lien structure provides really an unlimited credit facility. It gives us
the ability to do long-term hedges without posting any collateral, not worried about any collateral
calls or the like. It is more volumetric driven. So the fact that we have that really removes any
obstacles that we have in conducting the business.
And when we talk about growth and new project and new project development, we do that away from the
balance sheet anyway and we do that typically on the heels of an investment-grade offtake
agreement. So I dont see any benefit for us given the structure that we have employed here at NRG.
Okay, thank you.
Lasan Johong, RBC Capital Markets.
Thank you. Couple quick questions. David, do you have a target ratio in mind? If 0.545 is not
appropriate, is there a number that you think is in your mind you dont have to say it, but do
you have a number in mind?
Well, I would say that I have a point of view I am a member of the Board of Directors of
NRG. I am one of 14 members and so yes, I have a point of view and I wont say it, but I am one of
14 votes on that question. I think what we have done today is we have outlined several different
factors, very easily quantified factors that should cause Exelon that really gives Exelon a handle
to make a substantial increase in the 0.545 that they currently have on the table.
John Rowe has said repeatedly, and I have to tell you, one thing that I admire about John is that
throughout this process, he has been very direct about what he says. There has been no artifice, no
head faking. He tells people what he thinks and he has said it to you. Hes is all about value.
Well, today, we have handed him various roadmaps, the value that would lead to a substantial
increase over the 0.545. So we hope he will take one of those roads.
Do you think that there is a valid argument in what John is saying that both stocks are
undervalued and that both stocks undervaluation has to be taken into consideration?
Well, I would say that, to a point, in the sense that we have never argued that, in the 40s,
Exelons stock is an inflated currency, but I would say that, for investors, if they think that
Exelons stock is significantly undervalued, it is a highly liquid currency, they are free to go
out and buy it on their own. So you have to look at the value of the combination and I think that
is what is interesting about what they said about synergies.
I would also say that the price that has been put on the table for NRG is significantly below the
mark. There is a lot of room for movement, which I think overrides the fact that their stock may be
a decent deal at 48 or whatever they are trading at.
Okay. A quick question for you, Robert. 2011 EBITDA, if you remove hedges and go with the
forward curve, do you have an estimate of what that number looks like?
I do not.
Okay, thank you.
(Operator Instructions). Brian Russo, Ladenburg Thalmann.
Could you just maybe update us on any progress related to additional equity selldowns at NINA?
Well, Brian, thanks for asking that question. I will tell you that the progress with nuclear
selldown at NINA is highly dependent on the outcome of the Exelon situation and this is why. As we
have made pretty clear, essentially what were looking to do is sell down a 20% stake and we are
somewhat receptive to whether we sell it down at the NINA level or at the STP 3 and 4 level.
When you are selling a 20% stake to somebody, they have a very strong interest in knowing who the
majority partner is going to be in the project. So I would say that there is a lot of interest in
that 20% stake, but at this point this close to the July 21 proxy contest, to be frank, I think
most of the potential partners are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens with
Exelon.
Okay, thank you. Then just back on the Reliant Retail contribution of $400 million this year,
should we assume ongoing contribution is more like $250 million and the improvement in 09 is more
related to maybe some outsized margin per megawatt hour early on in this year, as well as some
favorable weather in June in ERCOT?
Brian, Bob is going to answer that question, but there was one other point I should have made
about the nuclear selldown. I would say that if the Exelon situation clarifies itself this month,
we are highly confident that we would be in a position to finalize the selldown before the end of
2009, ideally before the end of the third quarter. But with each day that passes, that becomes more
difficult. Anyway, on your question about the Reliant contribution.
Brian. I think the way you think about it over the next several years, when we came up with
the $250 million run rate, we looked out five to six years and looked at the curve on gas and the
impact on the supply side of meeting the load. And that is kind of an average number, but I think
when you think more of the prompt years, we will exceed that $400 million EBITDA number in 2009.
And given the forward curve and where the markets look in 2010, I would expect we would be above
the $250 million in 2010. When you look at the back end of the curve, it maybe
averages down to that level, but that is kind of the way we look at it right now. In the prompt
couple of years, you will see performance above that run rate level.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Andrew Weisel, Macquarie Capital.
This is actually Angie Storozynski. Two questions. We are hearing some question marks about
your nuclear CapEx and how you actually value the CapEx per kW when you compare it to the FPL and
to many other companies that actually showed their estimates of how much it is going to cost and
thats Exelons implied gap in your financing for this business. How could you address this issue?
Okay. Nahla, the slide on that is in the voluminous appendices, are they not? I know that we
hit you all with a very long presentation today, but there are several pages on the nuclear in the
appendices. And the first thing I would say to you is what constantly confuses a lot of people, and
evidently Exelon in this case, is making an apples-to-apples comparison. And so you have to be
clear, when youre talking about our project, you are talking about overnight costs, like in the
case of FPL, I know that when you look at their full number, they include the cost of transmission,
they are talking in 2017 dollars and things like that. So actually if you look at the numbers, if
you compare them, they are not that different from each other.
The second thing I would mention is we have estimated in the past that there are several hundred
million dollars of common facilities at our site. So if Exelon working in the neighboring county of
Victoria at a greenfield site is trying to compare our estimate to theirs, then maybe they are
missing that.
The third thing I would tell you is that we are the only one of the people who are looking to build
a plant who are looking to build a plant that has been built before, it has been built on time and
on budget in Japan and the builder of that, in this case Toshiba, has absolute full specific detail
about amount of labor required, amount of materials required and full construction design drawings.
And so we think our estimate for the technology we are building is actually the most accurate.
And Angie, let me up the ante a bit. We would say that our number, which appears on page 31, is
$3200 per kW. That was an estimate that was done, I think, 18 months ago. We believe when we redo
that estimate, it will come down because of the movement in copper and steel prices and the like.
So that would be my response on that. I know I got going on that, Angie. Was there another aspect
of that nuclear question or do you want to move on to your second question?
No, no, just one thing. You are going to finance or you are planning to finance this newbuild
through a JV, so not on your balance sheet. Now assuming that you are acquired by Exelon and
now you are an investment-grade company, how would it help this development from a financing
perspective if it is still a JV?
Yes, to be frank, most of the financing costs, it doesnt matter if you are Exelon or the
Southern Company or Duke or Florida Power and Light, most of the financial cost for any new nuclear
plant is going to be based off the federal loan guarantee numbers. So you would have to ask them
why them owning us would lead to a lower financing cost for a nuclear plant because we have
estimated, and we dont know exactly yet because the government has to tell us this, but we are
talking about a cost of debt funding for this project that would be only slightly above US
treasuries because of the federal loan guarantee. So I would be at a loss as to explain to you why
they think that their balance sheet is an advantage when it comes to financing the nuclear plant.
Now the last question about the wind development, there is clearly discrepancy in views as to
where the new wind farms will be built. Are they going to concentrate in Texas, are they going to
concentrate in the Midwest? Any comment on this issue?
Well, Mauricio is the expert on this. I would just say that in terms of one of the things
for those of us who have been in the fossil fuel fired business, development business for a long
time as you are trying to project future supply and demand, of course you are looking at what is in
the construction queue and before that what is in the development queue. And the good thing about
combining cycle plants was they took two to three years to build. So you had pretty good foresight,
four or five years into the future.
Wind is a little tougher because the plants get built within a year. So you have to look all the
way back to who is filing for interconnection permits. And I would tell you before Mauricio starts
talking that the number of interconnection permits being filed in Texas is way down while those in
the Midwest is massively up. But that is just one indicator from a developers perspective.
Mauricio, you want to talk about it from the markets perspective?
Sure. Angie, we have provided some detail on slide 42 on the appendix where we compare some of
the comments that Exelon made in their last presentation versus our perspective. We believe that
the wind resources in the Midwest are vast and there are transmission projects that have made
significant progress to bring those resources into load [sensors] primarily in the Midwest and West
of PJM. So we have outlined a number of reasons why we believe our perspective in terms of wind
development in the Midwest versus wind development in Texas to comply with the renewable energy
standard requirements is not going to happen just in one place, but I think it is going to happen
where the wind resources exist and that is in the Midwest.
Okay, thank you.
Terran Miller, Knight Libertas.
Good morning, David. Just a quick question, it seems that you would like Exelon to raise their
bid before you open up to due diligence and they would like to engage in some level of due
diligence to justify raising their bid. So my question is, simplistically, why is it a problem to
try to engage them in some conversation now if the end goal is to maximize shareholder value?
I would tell you, first of all, I think we are engaging in a conversation right now. The
letter we sent today is an engagement of a conversation. In a hostile takeover offer where if I
were to have a personal phone call with John Rowe, it would have to be filed with the SEC the next
day. This is all being done in the fishbowl here. So this is a conversation we are having.
In terms of our point of view on what you are saying, and actually if you would notice, they didnt
really make a big demand about doing due diligence in their investor presentation last week, but
you would have to ask them. From our perspective, we are trying to see if they are willing to be
fair. When we see $1 per share for Reliant Retail, there is just not a lot there to get you excited
that there is going to be a dialogue with two reasonable parties trying to reach a win-win
situation for both group of shareholders. That is the basis for the Boards decision today. And by
the way, in terms of your comment about optimizing shareholder value, I think and I hope you will
agree that we are demonstrating today, as we have done everyday, that we are optimizing shareholder
value pretty well here at NRG.
Thank you.
Scott Pearl, Seneca Capital.
It is actually [Matt Mylam]. Just to follow up on Lasans question, is it possible to give us
some color or direction on EBITDA for 2011 as it compares to the 2009 guidance as it is an
important number to the accretion/dilution of the proposed deal? Understanding that the market will
be what it will be, but looking at disclosures, it looks like 2011 has been hedged at a lower level
on a $1 per megawatt hour basis than 09. So is it maybe possible you can give us some color how
much lower 2011 EBITDA or how much lower hedges have been in 11 versus 09 and if it has been gas
or power that was hedged? Lastly, how do 2011 hedge prices compare to 2012?
We disclosed that in our 10-K, Matt, where we actually put out the hedge prices and generally
speaking, these are gas hedges and for 2011 I dont have the numbers in front of me but it is
in at around $7 in terms of what the hedge gas price is. And if you look at the earnings profile
over the next five years or so, 2011 is the low point on the wholesale portfolio. So that is not
unexpected and it is attributed to those hedges.
In terms of how much it is, you really have to take a look at the difference between 2009, which I
think the hedge numbers is over $8 and then you can take a look at the level that we are hedged,
which is about 70% in 2011, then you can just work the math from their to give you a good ballpark
on what that cost would be, what the difference would be.
Got you. Heat rates in ERCOT have improved quite a bit since the 12/31 heat rate curve I think
you guys use. So is it fair to assume that on a dollar per megawatt hour basis, it has actually
improved in 2011 given the heat rate improvement in gas?
Yes, that is right because right now the heat rate position in 2011 is very much open and as
that continues to strengthen, you will get uplift from that. Right now, when we talk about the dip,
were really just comparing where the proxy for power being gas, where that has been hedged at. The
heat rate is floating.
Yes, keep in mind that on our disclosure on the 10-K, we use the heat rate as of December 31
and the heat rates have increased significantly not only because of the strong [peering] prices
that we are seeing in Texas, but the lack of generation that we are expecting given the credit
environment. The fundamentals in that market are reflected in the increase in heat rates that we
have seen over the past couple of months.
So when you see the heat rate sensitivity that we had on slide 20 as well, when you see the
heat rate movement in 2011 as it moves a quarter a point, that is a $66 million impact. So I think
you got the components there to be able to come up with the difference.
Matt, on this front you didnt really ask about this but you asked close enough, so I will
answer the question you didnt ask. Our early indications of electricity demand in ERCOT relative
to the other parts of the country, particularly the industrial Midwest, is that weve started to
see substantial signs of recovery in June, even on a weather-adjusted basis. I know that everyone
knows that it has been scorching hot down in the Gulf Coast and that is good for business when you
are in the business we are in. But even if you adjust for weather, I think we saw a statistically
meaningful improvement in June relative to the spring months. Now, that is just one month, but it
is a welcome sign.
Great, thanks.
[Michael Boat], Wells Fargo Securities.
I just had a quick question. I was wondering if you could comment on what you are seeing or
assuming for bad debt expense at the retail business.
Jason, would you like to answer that question?
Sure. One of the good things about the Texas market is it seems to be holding up a lot better
than other markets around the country and so we are not seeing significant changes in our bad debt
experience in the retail business. Although we continue to plan for potential impacts from a bad
debt perspective, but today, the retail business is less than 2% on a bad debt expense basis.
And historically compared to what is that in normal times?
It is right in line with what we have seen in previous years.
Is that less than 2% of revenue?
Yes.
And then just a follow-up on that, I think First Choice was talking about the regulators in
Texas looking at some regulatory policies to prevent I guess customers can hop around pretty
easily and leave a rep with some unpaid bills. Is there any progress on that?
Yes, there is no regulation that allows a customer to leave a rep with an unpaid bill.
Customers are accountable for those bills. There was legislation to accelerate the actual time in
which a customer can switch away, but that in no way impacts their obligation to pay their bill.
Okay.
And/or termination penalties if they have that on the residential side.
Okay, thank you.
Lacy, I think we have time for one more question.
Anthony Crowdell, Jefferies.
Just a follow-up, I wanted to understand the procedure. If NRG shareholders do vote in the
Exelon Board members, they still have like I guess, I would say, a second vote or they still get to
approve the transaction, so there would be two separate votes for NRG shareholders, is that
correct?
Anthony, I think you have to clarify your question. My understanding of this I mean the
shareholders themselves, they have essentially two votes at the shareholder meeting. One, there are
four class III nominees against the four class III Directors on the Board and then a second vote
increases the size of the Board from 14 to 19 and then they have got five candidates for those
things. So those two votes, you do it at the same time, my understanding. But that is not your
question is it?
I think, Anthony, your question is if there is a transaction that is going to be consummated,
would the NRG shareholders have to vote on it.
Yes, that is it.
Yes, they would.
So they are going to have a Board vote or they get like two votes for the Board and then if a
transaction is consummated, they do get another vote to approve that transaction?
That would be down the line. Right now, the vote is simply now around Board seats. There is no
vote on transaction at this point in time.
Thank you.
Okay, operator, well, we want to thank everyone who participated in the call and we appreciate
your interest in NRG. Thank you.
Thank you for your participation in todays conference. This concludes your presentation. You
may now disconnect. Good day, everyone.