Unexpected demand, inventory, lead time, design activity, and pricing shifts could continue into 2026 and beyond

Manufacturer demand for electronics components typically peaks in the second half of the year due to Christmas, New Year’s, and new product launches. But new intelligence from Supplyframe’s decision support platform, Commodity IQ, reveals that component demand was anything but typical in 2025, when pre-tariff frontloading earlier in the year led to a demand surge, followed by a swift mid-year decline, and expected record lows this November and December.

“This new Commodity IQ data provides further proof that our unpredictable world is turning typically reliable trends on their heads,” said Supplyframe CEO and founder Steve Flagg. “It follows our earlier 2025 finding that electronics supply chain disruption due to the new tariff regime and related behaviors even outpaced what we all experienced during the pandemic.”

Demand across interconnects, passives, and semiconductors (not including AI GPUs) peaked in May 2025, dropped precipitously in June, saw a smaller spike in July, and has been decreasing or flat ever since. In Q3, interconnects declined by 7.9%, while passives went down 8.2%, and semiconductors dropped 9.7%. Commodity IQ indicates all three commodity groups will fall to four-year lows in December.

These major shifts in demand and stock created ripple effects, impacting lead times and pricing.

Lead times peaked in May 2025, then normalized due to declining demand in the second half. Commodity IQ intelligence indicates lead times will continue to decline in Q4, with passives and semiconductors dropping 13.4% and 5.3%, respectively, and interconnects declining 2.8%.

Pricing for these components has been flat or down, with the most significant changes occurring April through August. Pricing for interconnects, passives, and semiconductors is expected to remain mostly flat or down in Q4. However, if the U.S. presidential administration moves forward with imposing tariffs on semiconductor imports, that could affect prices.

“No one can predict the future,” said Flagg. “But if you can understand emerging trends early and make the right tradeoffs during new product design, you will significantly lower your risk related to outside forces that can lead to changes in demand, inventory, lead time, and pricing. Supplyframe’s Design-to-Source Intelligence solutions provide the outside-in intelligence that today’s industry leaders need to thrive in an uncertain market.”

Supplyframe Commodity IQ reflects actual demand, design activity, inventory, lead times, and pricing across over $150 billion in annual commodity spend across Supplyframe’s global Design-to-Source Intelligence (DSI) Network of 12 million+ sourcing and engineering professionals, plus 1,000 practitioner, partner, and source contributions. This real-time decision support allows commodity managers to navigate uncertainty and reduce costs.

About Supplyframe

Supplyframe’s unmatched industry ecosystem, and pioneering Design-to-Source Intelligence (DSI) Solutions, are transforming how people and businesses design, source, market, and sell products across the global electronics value chain. Leveraging billions of continuous signals of design intent, demand, supply, and risk factors, Supplyframe’s DSI Platform is the world’s richest intelligence resource for the electronics industry. Over 12 million engineering and supply chain professionals worldwide engage with our SaaS solutions, search engines, and media properties to power rapid innovation and optimize in excess of $150 billion in annual direct materials spend. Supplyframe is headquartered in Pasadena, Calif., with offices in Austin, Belgrade, Grenoble, Oxford, San Francisco, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. To join the Supplyframe community, visit supplyframe.com and follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and YouTube.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251103634064/en/

“This new Commodity IQ data provides further proof that our unpredictable world is turning typically reliable trends on their heads,” said Supplyframe CEO and founder Steve Flagg.