Wolters Kluwer: Leading U.S. Economists Conflicted on the Timing of Next Fed Rate Cut

Economists predict that PCE inflation is poised to rise well above the Fed’s 2% target

Wolters Kluwer has published the February 2025 edition of its Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, which finds only 10% of the panel’s 47 leading economists anticipating a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting. Additionally, a majority of panelists (80%) believe that the expected increase in tariffs will provide a significant boost to U.S. inflation.

Since 1976, Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators has been the leading monthly forecast sourced from an expert panel of economists that are employed by some of America's largest and most respected manufacturers, banks, and insurance companies.

Highlights include:

• Only 15% of economists believe that the next Fed rate cut will occur in May. Instead, a majority (50%) of panelists anticipate a June cut, while 23% believe that the next cut won’t be initiated until later in the year.

• The February consensus forecast now places a 48% probability of inflation reaccelerating meaningfully over the next six months.

• Economists anticipate that PCE inflation to rise to 2.5% in the current quarter, well above the Fed’s 2% target, and to remain at that pace through the first quarter of next year.

• All but one of the 47 economists surveyed believe that AI will eventually disrupt the labor market, reducing labor demand in some sectors while increasing it in others. However, a majority (55%) don’t expect the impact to be felt for 3-5 years.

Each month’s Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey highlights the predictions of each individual panel member as well as a consensus – or average – forecast for the direction of variables such as real gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index and the unemployment rate.

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About Wolters Kluwer

Wolters Kluwer (EURONEXT: WKL) is a global leader in information, software solutions and services for professionals in healthcare; tax and accounting; financial and corporate compliance; legal and regulatory; corporate performance and ESG. We help our customers make critical decisions every day by providing expert solutions that combine deep domain knowledge with technology and services.

Wolters Kluwer reported 2023 annual revenues of €5.6 billion. The group serves customers in over 180 countries, maintains operations in over 40 countries, and employs approximately 21,400 people worldwide. The company is headquartered in Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands.

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