A new market outlook from builder and real estate expert Michael Grunbaum projects a notable shift in the U.S. housing landscape by 2026, as buyers are expected to regain leverage amid easing mortgage rates and improving home inventory.
Grunbaum said affordability, one of the toughest challenges from 2022 through 2024, is set to improve modestly next year as borrowing costs decline and listings increase. While interest rates are unlikely to return to the ultra-low levels of the pandemic, he said the gradual reduction marks a meaningful turning point for both buyers and sellers.
“The 2026 housing market will look different from the last few years,” said Grunbaum, founder of Starck Builders, LLC. “Buyers are coming back, but they’re coming back smarter. With rates easing and inventory rising, sellers will need to adjust expectations. We’re not going to see bidding wars like 2021. This will be a market that rewards patience, preparation, and negotiation.”
Grunbaum noted industry data indicating a slowdown in price growth and longer average days on the market. He said while affordability remains tight in large metropolitan areas, many secondary and suburban regions are starting to show balance between supply and demand. “The frenzy has subsided,” he said. “That’s healthy. A balanced market is sustainable and benefits everyone over time.”
For buyers, 2026 could present what Grunbaum calls “a window of opportunity” as more properties enter the market and sellers show greater flexibility on pricing or closing costs. However, he emphasized that the outlook will differ by location. “Not every market will move in the same direction,” he said. “It’s about understanding local dynamics. In some areas, prices may stabilize, while in others, they could climb again once demand rebounds.”
Experts, including Grunbaum, anticipate mortgage rates will continue trending downward after peaking in recent years. This easing could make monthly payments more manageable for qualified buyers, though overall affordability will still depend on wage growth and regional price trends. “If you find a home you can comfortably afford, and it meets your long-term needs, 2026 could be the right year to buy,” he said. “Those who wait too long might face higher prices once confidence returns to the market.”
Sellers, meanwhile, will need to adjust to longer selling times and more competition. Grunbaum advises homeowners to take a realistic approach to pricing and remain open to concessions. “It’s not 2021 anymore,” he said. “Homes won’t sell in days. Sellers who stay pragmatic about pricing and invest in small improvements will stand out.”
Looking ahead, Grunbaum sees 2026 as a transitional year rather than a downturn or boom. “The market is finding its balance again,” he said. “Neither buyers nor sellers hold all the cards. It’s a period when informed decisions, not emotional reactions, will define success.”
With more than 30 years of experience in real estate development, construction, and contracting, Grunbaum’s forecast underscores a return to fundamentals—steady demand, normalized pricing, and transactions based on genuine housing needs rather than speculation.
About Michael Grunbaum
Michael Grunbaum is a seasoned builder, developer, and contractor with over three decades of experience in residential and commercial construction. As founder and owner of Starck Builders, LLC, he combines technical expertise with a civil engineering background to deliver high-quality craftsmanship and client-focused service. Grunbaum is widely recognized for his practical insights into real estate development, homebuilding, and housing market trends.
About Starck Builders, LLC
Founded by Michael Grunbaum in 1996, Starck Builders, LLC provides residential and commercial construction services with a focus on quality, transparency, and client satisfaction. The company offers custom building, renovation, and construction management solutions across diverse markets.
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