Streaming video giant Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) met Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales up 12.5% year on year to $10.54 billion. The company expects next quarter’s revenue to be around $11.04 billion, close to analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $6.61 per share was 16.9% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy NFLX?
Netflix (NFLX) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $10.54 billion vs analyst estimates of $10.51 billion (12.5% year-on-year growth, in line)
- EPS (GAAP): $6.61 vs analyst estimates of $5.66 (16.9% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $3.5 billion vs analyst estimates of $3.17 billion (33.2% margin, 10.4% beat)
- The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $44 billion at the midpoint
- EPS (GAAP) guidance for Q2 CY2025 is $7.03 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 12.7%
- Operating Margin: 31.7%, up from 28.1% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 25.2%, up from 13.5% in the previous quarter
- Global Streaming Paid Memberships: 305.7 million, up 36.09 million year on year
- Market Capitalization: $442.7 billion
Netflix’s latest quarter was shaped by continued investments in content and the rollout of its proprietary advertising technology. Management emphasized that strong member retention and engagement underpinned financial performance, while ongoing development of live events and interactive content contributed to growth. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos noted, “We are long-range thinking, and we’re working hard every day to build the most loved and valued entertainment company for all of our stakeholders.”
Looking ahead, Netflix’s guidance reflects confidence in further margin expansion and revenue growth, supported by expectations of higher content spend in the second half of the year and the scaling of its advertising business. CFO Spence Neumann explained that increased content and marketing costs are planned, particularly as larger titles return later in the year. Management reiterated a focus on balancing investment with profitability, and maintained its outlook for operating margin and free cash flow growth.
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Netflix’s management highlighted the resilience of its business model and the effectiveness of its dual approach to subscription and advertising revenue. The quarter was influenced by stable member trends and the continued push into new content categories, including live events and gaming.
- Content investment remains central: Management reiterated plans to expand original content across global markets, with significant recent commitments to Mexico and Korea. These investments are seen as key to supporting long-term engagement and growth.
- Advertising platform rollout: The proprietary ad-tech platform was launched in the U.S. and Canada and is set to reach additional markets soon. Management believes this will improve targeting, measurement, and advertiser flexibility, ultimately driving ad revenue growth.
- Live event strategy: Netflix continued to invest in live events, such as sports and major cultural moments, which management sees as drivers for acquisition and retention. Recent and upcoming events include high-visibility sports broadcasts and live entertainment specials.
- Gaming incremental but experimental: The company is focused on building its games offering, emphasizing narrative-driven games tied to popular intellectual property. While still a small contributor, management views gaming as a long-term growth opportunity.
- Board leadership changes: After 27 years, Tim Haley will not stand for re-election as a board director. Management acknowledged his contribution to Netflix’s evolution but indicated no change to the current strategy as a result.
Drivers of Future Performance
Management reaffirmed its revenue guidance for the year at $44 billion and expects Q2 earnings per share to reach $7.03, above analyst expectations.
- Content slate timing: A return of major titles and a heavier film release schedule in the second half of the year is expected to increase both content expenses and engagement, supporting revenue growth.
- Advertising business expansion: Management anticipates that the continued rollout and enhancement of the proprietary ad-tech platform will help double advertising revenue in 2025, with programmatic and targeted ads as key growth levers.
- Macroeconomic and competitive risks: Executives noted ongoing macro uncertainty and evolving competition for consumer attention, though they highlighted the historical resilience of entertainment spending and Netflix’s value proposition as mitigating factors.
Top Analyst Questions
- Robert Fishman (MoffettNathanson): Asked about the impact of increased content spending and long-term growth targets. Management clarified internal aspirations are not formal forecasts but emphasized focus on expanding engagement and value.
- Jason Helfstein (Oppenheimer): Questioned how a potential recession could affect plan downgrades. Management stated retention remains stable and highlighted the ad-supported plan as a resilient, low-cost option.
- Rich Greenfield (LightShed Partners): Inquired about live sports and event strategy. Management reiterated focus on selective, high-impact live events that fit economic criteria, rather than broad expansion.
- Michael Morris (Guggenheim): Asked about future margin trends amid higher content costs. Management explained that increased spend is planned for the second half, aligning with content release timing and marketing investments.
- Vikram (Baird): Requested an update on ad-tech platform rollout. Management reported positive early results in North America and outlined plans to expand features and geographic reach.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the quarters ahead, our analysts will monitor (1) the impact of major content releases on member growth and retention, (2) the continued rollout and adoption of the proprietary advertising platform across new markets, and (3) the company’s ability to manage content and marketing expenses while maintaining operating margin targets. Progress in gaming and further international content investment will also be closely watched as potential sources of incremental growth.
Could NFLX achieve its goals and exceed our expectations? See for yourself in our free research report.
Stocks That Trumped Tariffs in 2018
The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025.
While the crowd speculates what might happen next, we’re homing in on the companies that can succeed regardless of the political or macroeconomic environment. Put yourself in the driver’s seat and build a durable portfolio by checking out our Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 175% over the last five years.
Stocks that made our list in 2019 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+2,183% between December 2019 and December 2024) as well as under-the-radar businesses like Comfort Systems (+751% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.